For those of you who don't know, Christmas Eve & Christmas Day have a special relevance for Jews: we go to the movies and eat chinese food (you can Google "chinese food on Christmas" and watch the latest viral video). Well, most of us eat chinese food, unless you have a spouse who detests the entire cuisine of a nation...
We saw "Charlie Wilson's War" and though it is billed as a comedy, there is a history lesson delivered not so subtly that should make each and every one of us stop and think. Relevance aside, however, it is very funny, and the acting, writing and directing are all first rate.
I turned on my radio this morning to hear the first of what I know will be many year-end economic wrap-ups. The featured economist predicted much more decline and doom in the real estate market for 2008, which led me to check his track record on predictions (OK, that's really why I sat down at the computer) and found that until mid-Summer, he thought all these incidents I've been ranting and raving about since late 2004, like sub-prime mortgages, homeowners living on their equity, over-inflated appraisals, investor over-exuberance) were either irrelevant or localized annoyances that would not affect the national market or those not associated with the real estate industry.
My point is not that this economist was wrong or that I was right, as I am very sad that my predictions were all accurate. My point is that as you and I listen and read the prognostications, ruminations, and forecasts of these so-called "expert" economists and other real-estate gurus, we all have to ask, "If you didn't see it coming, how do you know where it is going to end up?".